How does Thursday's jaw-dropping deal at the NBA trade deadline -- sending Brooklyn Nets star James Harden to the Philadelphia 76ers for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry and two future first-round picks -- change the balance of power in the Eastern Conference?
在週四的 NBA 交易截止日期到來前，布魯克林籃網隊將明星球員詹姆斯-哈登送到費城 76 人隊以換取本-西蒙斯、塞斯-庫裡和兩個未來的首輪選秀權。這筆令人瞠目結舌的交易將如何改變東部的格局？
A midseason deal between two conference rivals with championship aspirations is unprecedented in modern NBA history, and the implications are fascinating. Simmons will assuredly return to action after sitting out the entire 2021-22 season to date, while Harden is reunited with Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey, who previously brought him to the Houston Rockets.
兩個同時像總冠軍衝擊的對手在進行賽季中期交易在現代 NBA 歷史上是前所未有的，其影響也自然十分有趣。西蒙斯在缺席了2021-22賽季前半段比賽之後肯定會重返賽場，而哈登則與 76 人隊總裁重聚，後者此前曾將他交易來休斯頓火箭隊。
How well will Simmons fit in Brooklyn alongside Kevin Durant and (at least in road games) Kyrie Irving after his on-court career in Philadelphia ended in disappointing fashion? How much of a risk are the 76ers taking by trading for Harden before he's eligible to sign one of the largest contracts the league has ever seen? And what did the undercard of the trade struck hours before the NBA trade deadline say about which team was more motivated to make a deal?
Let's sort through the myriad considerations of the trade centered around Harden and Simmons.
西蒙斯在費城的生涯以令人失望的方式結束後，在布魯克林與凱文-杜蘭特和凱里-歐文（至少在客場比賽中）會有怎樣的適配效果？ 在哈登有資格簽下聯盟有史以來最大的合同之一前，76人交易哈登要承擔多大的風險？在NBA交易截止日期前幾個小時敲定的交易底牌說明了哪支球隊更想達成交易？
讓我們梳理一下這筆以哈登和西蒙斯為中心的交易背後的種種考量。
交易內容
布魯克林籃網得到：本-西蒙斯、賽斯-庫裡、安德烈-德拉蒙德、2022 首輪選秀權（籃網有權將該首輪籤改為 2023 年）、2027 首輪選秀權（前8順位受保護）
費城76人得到：詹姆斯-哈登、保羅-米爾薩普
籃網：B+
It was 392 days ago that the Nets brought Harden to Brooklyn to complete their superteam. In that span, they've gone from championship favorites to second-round exit to not having Irving for the first two months of this season because of New York City's COVID-19 vaccine mandate to nine-game losing streak to trading Harden.
Life in the NBA comes at you fast.
392 天前，籃網隊將哈登帶到布魯克林以完成他們的超級球隊建構。在那段時間裡，他們從奪冠熱門到次輪出局，到本賽季前兩個月歐文因為紐約市的 COVID-19 疫苗授權問題而無法出戰，再到交易哈登前的九連敗。
在NBA，一切都瞬息萬變
In the short term, the Nets' odds of winning a title have decreased -- down to +425 from +400, according to Caesars Sportsbook. If Brooklyn could count on Harden being fully engaged for the postseason, a duo of him and Kevin Durant would have given the Nets a realistic path to the championship even if it started in the play-in tournament. Remember, we saw Durant and Harden playing on a severe hamstring injury nearly take out the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks last spring with Irving playing no role because of injury in the last three games of that series.
根據 Caesars Sportsbook 的資料，籃網贏得總冠軍的賠率在短期內從 +400 降至 +425。 如果布魯克林可以指望哈登在季後賽中全力以赴，那麼即使從附加賽開始，他和杜蘭特的二人組也會給籃網一條通往總冠軍的現實道路。請記住，我們看到杜蘭特和有嚴重腿筋傷勢的哈登在去年幾乎淘汰了最終的冠軍密爾沃基雄鹿，而歐文在該系列賽的最後三場比賽中因為受傷而沒能出戰。
Still, Brooklyn had to acknowledge that being the favorite to win it all this season was no longer realistic, given Irving's ineligibility for home games and Joe Harris' uncertain return from ankle surgery. The Eastern Conference also looks far deeper this season with five teams besides the Nets on track for at least 48 wins, compared with three teams at that level including Brooklyn in last year's 72-game season.
儘管如此，布魯克林不得不承認，考慮到歐文沒有資格參加主場比賽以及喬-哈里斯從腳踝手術中恢復的狀態的不確定性，本賽季成為奪冠熱門已經不再現實。東部本賽季看起來也更加水深火熱，除了籃網之外，有五支球隊至少能取得48 場勝利，而在去年的 72 場比賽中，僅有包括布魯克林在內的三支球隊處於這一水平。
That reality surely made it easier to make a trade that lands an All-Star who's seven years younger than Harden, plus a valuable outside shooter in Curry who helps cushion the loss of Harris.
這一現實無疑讓籃網做出交易變得更容易，得到一個比哈登年輕 7 歲的全明星球員，再加上一個有價值的外線射手庫裡，能夠幫助緩衝喬-哈里斯受傷的損失。
The most fascinating piece of this trade for the Nets is how Simmons will fit. Irving's availability complicates that process because Simmons may have to play different roles in home and road games. With Irving out of the lineup, Brooklyn probably wants the ball in Simmons' hands as the team's best playmaker. On the road, Irving and Durant become primary ballhandlers, and Simmons moves off the ball. It was easier when Harden was the point guard home or away.
對於籃網來說，這筆交易中最有趣的是西蒙斯融入球隊體系的方式。歐文的出賽方式讓這個過程變得複雜，因為西蒙斯可能不得不在主場和客場比賽中扮演不同的角色。隨著歐文不在陣容中，布魯克林可能希望西蒙斯作為球隊最好的組織者然後將球交到西蒙斯手中。在客場，歐文和杜蘭特成為主要的控球手，而西蒙斯則進行無球跑動。當哈登在主場或客場擔任控球后衛時，情況要容易的多。
Ideally, I think Simmons would play more or less the role that Bruce Brown Jr. has for the Nets the last two seasons as a guard defender who floats into open spaces on offense and acts as a screener. Philadelphia tried that at times with Simmons, most notably during the 2020 bubble restart, until a knee injury brought that experiment to a halt after just three games.
理想情況下，我認為西蒙斯或多或少會扮演過去兩個賽季在籃網隊擔任的後場防守者的布魯斯-布朗，在進攻時尋找空位並作為掩護者。2020年園區複賽期間費城就在西蒙斯身上嘗試過這種做法，但因膝蓋傷勢，僅僅三場比賽後，該實驗就停止了。
Simmons is more dangerous than Brown when making plays off of short rolls and gives Brooklyn more size defensively -- something that will help it play undersized shooting guards Curry and Patty Mills, possibly even together. The question is what happens in home games.
在季後賽中，西蒙斯在籃下進攻時比布朗更具威脅，並且在防守端用自身更大的尺寸給布魯克林帶來優勢——這將有助於他與身材矮小的得分後衛庫裡和帕蒂-米爾斯一起打球。問題是在主場比賽中會發生什麼。
Do the Nets trust Curry and Mills to initiate the offense? Does Durant serve as point forward, adding even more to his plate? Or is Simmons in that role, one that has highlighted his reluctance to shoot from the perimeter and go to the free throw line in past postseasons?
籃網是否信任庫裡和米爾斯來發起進攻？杜蘭特是否擔任控球前鋒，為他繼續增加場上責任？或者是西蒙斯繼續扮演他在過去的季後賽中所強調的他不願意從外線投籃以及走上罰球線的那個角色？
The timing of this trade doesn't help Steve Nash and his coaching staff, who have already had a year unlike any before. Brooklyn has 26 games left in the regular season after Thursday. Durant, already ruled out of the All-Star Game, surely won't play until after the break. It's unclear when Simmons might first suit up. And of the 23 games the Nets play after the break, Irving is currently eligible for just 10 of them. That's not much time for Brooklyn to build chemistry.
這筆交易的時機並沒有幫助史蒂夫-納什和他的教練組減輕負擔，他們已經度過了前所未有的一年。週四之後，籃網的常規賽還剩 26 場比賽。杜蘭特已經確定缺席全明星，肯定要等到全明星結束後才能復出。目前還不清楚西蒙斯什麼時候會登場。而在全明星休息後籃網將要打的23場比賽中，歐文目前只有資格參加其中的10場，留給布魯克林建立化學反應的時間已經所剩無幾。
Defensively, Simmons should be a massive upgrade for the Nets. After showing enough faculty with a switch-heavy scheme to be competent defensively during the 2021 playoffs, they've frequently been flambéed by quality competition this season. Milwaukee scored more than 124 points per 100 possessions in both head-to-head wins, per NBA Advanced Stats.
在防守端，西蒙斯應該是籃網的一個巨大升級。籃網在 2021 年季後賽中展示了防守端的大量換防的能力之後，在本賽季與高水平對手的對抗中他們的防守端經常被擊潰。根據 NBA Advanced Stats的資料，密爾沃基在兩場與布魯克林正面交鋒並取得勝利的比賽中每 100 回合得分超過124 分。
As a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Simmons was overrated last season. His on-ball defense isn't as valuable as having a top-tier rim protector, but in a playoff setting his versatility will be a huge plus.
而作為年度最佳防守球員候選人，西蒙斯上賽季被高估了。他的有球防守不像其頂級的護框能力那麼有價值，但在季後賽中，他在防守端的多才多藝將是一個巨大的優勢。
Down the road, swapping Harden for Simmons gives the Nets more options. Trading Harden anywhere but Philly was going to be a challenge because of his contract. We already know from the past six months' of trade rumors that Simmons has value elsewhere if Brooklyn doesn't like the fit.
未來，用哈登換西蒙斯會給籃網更多的選擇。由於他的大合同，在費城以外的任何地方交易哈登都將是一個挑戰。從過去六個月的交易傳聞中我們已經知道，如果布魯克林不喜歡這套方案，西蒙斯在其他地方也有交易價值。
The Nets also recouped two of the three first-round picks they sent the Rockets for Harden, allowing them to sweeten deals in a way that wasn't previously possible. And it's possible that Harris becomes easier for Brooklyn to move with Curry as a replacement already on the roster.
籃網還得到了從休斯頓交易來哈登時付出的三個首輪籤中的兩個，這讓他們能夠以一種以前不可能的方式進行更愉快的交易。同時，籃網可能讓已經在輪換名單中的小庫裡成為傷愈恢復中哈里斯的替代品從而更容易的操作哈里斯的合同。
Add it up and there's no question the Nets won this trade from a value perspective. Just how much they sacrificed in terms of short-term championship equity is tougher to tell based on Harden's mindset. Brooklyn also strengthened a competitor in the East for this year's playoffs, an important part of the calculation. Given all that, I understand why the Nets were willing to hold out and make the deal more favorable for them than a straight swap.
綜上所述，從價值的角度來看，籃網毫無疑問贏得了這筆交易。根據哈登的心態，很難判斷他們在短期爭冠的方面犧牲了多少。雖然布魯克林加強了今年季後賽東部的競爭對手，但這是計劃中的重要組成部分。鑑於這一切，我理解為什麼籃網願意堅持並讓這筆大交易對他們更有利，而不是進行哈登和西蒙斯單純直接的交換。
76人：C-
In the end, Morey got his guy. At what price?
Despite the incentives for Brooklyn to make a trade now, the pull seemed stronger for the 76ers for a variety of reasons. Although they've played well enough without Simmons to stay in contention in the East -- Philadelphia is just 2.5 games out of first place and now three up on the Nets -- the Sixers were going to have a hard time competing in the playoffs while getting nothing from his roster spot.
最終，76人管理層得到了他們要的，但以什麼成本呢？
儘管布魯克林現在有進行交易的動機，但出於各種原因，76 人隊的吸引力似乎更強。 儘管他們在沒有西蒙斯的情況下打得足夠好，能夠在東部的爭奪中留有一席之地——費城只落後第一名2.5個勝場，領先籃網3場——但西蒙斯的貢獻為零讓76 人隊將很難在季後賽中競爭。
Given star center Joel Embiid is in the middle of his prime (he'll turn 28 next month) and as healthy as he's ever been, having played 42 of a possible 54 games thus far, Philly had urgency to get him the help necessary to compete for a championship. From an offensive standpoint, Harden is the best teammate Embiid has ever had, although it will be interesting to see how the two players fit together.
鑑於明星中鋒喬爾-恩比德正處於巔峰期（下個月他將年滿 28 歲），並且和以往一樣健康，到目前為止，他已經打了 54 場比賽中的 42 場，費城迫切希望他得到必要的幫助以爭奪冠軍。從進攻端來看，哈登是恩比德有史以來最好的隊友，儘管兩名球員的相容性還有待證明。
Harden has always paired best with floor spacers and lob threats at center. Embiid isn't quite either of those. He's rolled to the hoop on ball screens just 16 times per 100 possessions this season, according to Second Spectrum tracking, a rate far lower than Brooklyn's centers. The lowest of that group is LaMarcus Aldridge at 30 per 100 possessions.
哈登總是與站定拉開空間和能夠擋拆順下的中鋒適配得最好。恩比德不屬於其中任何一個型別的球員。 根據 Second Spectrum 的追蹤，本賽季他每 100 回合只有 16 次在有球掩護順下到籃下，這一比例遠低於籃網的中鋒。布魯克林該組中最低的是拉馬庫斯-阿爾德里奇，每100回合30次。
There's no doubt Embiid can drag his defender to the perimeter to space for the isolations Harden favored by the end of his time in Houston, but that feels like a waste of the league's leading scorer at 29.4 PPG. Same with Harden dumping the ball into Embiid in the post, something he can do but is overqualified for as a primary option.
毫無疑問，恩比德可以將他的防守者拉到外線，讓哈登進行在休斯頓時爐火純青地單打，但這感覺就像對場均 29.4 分的聯盟頭號得分手的浪費。同樣，這與讓哈登將球餵給低位的恩比德一樣，他當然能夠完成這樣的工作，但對這樣水平的球員來說過於奢侈。
Assuming 76ers coach Doc Rivers staggers their minutes, part of the value of having both Embiid and Harden is that one of them should be on the floor at all times -- particularly useful when one or the other does miss time. Philadelphia's offensive rating has sunk by 7.7 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the bench, taking the Sixers from outscoring opponents by 7.1 points per 100 possessions to a minus-2.3 net rating according to NBA Advanced Stats.
假設 76 人隊的主教練裡弗斯錯開他們的上場時間，同時擁有恩比德和哈登的部分價值在於，他們中的一個人應該一直在場上——尤其是當球隊的另一位明星球員不在時。 根據 NBA Advanced Stats的資料，在恩比德坐在替補席上的情況下，費城的進攻效率每 100 回合下降 7.7 分，使 76 人隊從每百回合得分比對手多7.1分，變成淨得分為負 2.3。
Still, to maximize their partnership, Harden and Embiid will have to develop two-man chemistry that utilizes both Harden's mastery of pick-and-roll angles and Embiid's ability to threaten defenses in a variety of manners. On the plus side, switching pick-and-rolls against them is unthinkable given Embiid's matchup advantages against smaller defenders in the post and Harden's ability to cook slower defenders 1-on-1.
儘管如此，為了最大限度地發揮他們的合作關係，哈登和恩比德必須建立並發展兩人的化學反應，利用哈登對擋拆角度的掌握和恩比德以各種方式威脅防守的能力。 從好的方面來說，考慮到恩比德在低位對小個防守者的對位優勢以及哈登在一對一時懲罰速度較慢的防守者的能力，他們兩者進行的擋拆是不可想象的。
How Harden fits defensively is more of a concern. The best defenses featuring Harden, both with the Rockets and the Nets, have relied heavily on switching. He's effective using his strength to counter bigger opponents and struggles in space. Often, that's meant an initial defensive assignment against big men for Harden, but that now means asking Philadelphia forward Tobias Harris to defend on a perimeter. Switching in lineups with Embiid doesn't make much sense, so Harden will surely be asked to play conventional pick-and-roll defense, a challenge for him.
哈登如何適應防守更令人擔憂。哈登打出的那些優秀的防守代表作，無論是在火箭還是籃網時期，都嚴重依賴於換防。 他有效地利用自己的力量對抗尺寸更大、沒有空間屬性的對手。 通常，這意味著哈登最初的防守任務是對抗大個子，但現在這意味著要求費城前鋒託拜厄斯-哈里斯在外線防守。與恩比德換防沒有多大意義，所以哈登肯定會被要求打傳統的擋拆防守，這對他來說是一個挑戰。
Add it up, and I still have Milwaukee and the Miami Heat as the two favorites to win the Eastern Conference this year. That's an issue because the Sixers need immediate success to justify the contract they'll presumably hand Harden this offseason. Assuming Harden picks up his $47.4 million player option for 2022-23, he'll be eligible to sign a four-year, $223 million extension once extend-and-trade restrictions expire in six months.
綜上所述，我仍然認為密爾沃基雄鹿和邁阿密熱火是今年東部的兩大熱門。76人隊面臨一大問題，他們需要立即取得成功來證明他們可能會在休賽期交給哈登的合同的合理性。 假設哈登在2022-23賽季執行了價值 4740萬美元的球員選項，一旦續約且交易的限制在六個月後到期，他將有資格簽署一份為期四年、價值 2.23億美元的續約合同。
That extension would take Harden through age 37, a point at which he's unlikely to still be an All-NBA type of contributor. We have more than enough evidence in recent years of how big extensions for aging guards can go wrong. As compared to the worst examples, Harden's shooting ability protects his value to a certain degree, but he's already shown marked decline this season at age 32.
這份合同後哈登的年齡將來到37歲，此時他不太可能仍然是NBA最佳陣容級別的球員。近年來，我們有足夠多的證據表明高齡後衛的大額續約合同可能會失敗。與那些最壞的例項相比，哈登的投籃能力在一定程度上保護了他的價值，但他在32歲的這個賽季已經表現出明顯的下滑。
In a vacuum, I'd probably rather have Simmons on his current contract than Harden on his next one, which could make everything else Philadelphia gave up painful. Curry was an important role player for the Sixers, who now find themselves relying on weaker shooters to fill out their wing rotation.
在假想環境中，我可能寧願承受西蒙斯當前的合同而不是哈登的續約合同，後者可能會讓費城為在這筆交易中放棄的一切而痛苦不堪。庫裡是76人的重要角色球員，他們現在正依靠較弱的射手來填補他們的側翼輪轉。
Philadelphia did manage to hold on to recent first-round picks Tyrese Maxey and Matisse Thybulle in the negotiations. Maxey seems like a possible trade candidate down the line given he's most valuable with the ball in his hands, though his development as a shooter (40% on 3s this season) makes him a plausible option to team with Harden in the backcourt.
費城在談判中確實設法保住了最近的首輪選秀權泰雷斯-馬克西和馬蒂斯-賽布林。馬克西似乎是一個可能的交易候選人，因為他的價值在於其有球在手時（與哈登重合），但他作為一名射手的成長（本賽季三分命中率 40%）使他成為與哈登在後場搭檔的合理選擇。
The cost of keeping young talent was a pair of future first-round picks. Giving Brooklyn the option to defer this year's first-round pick to 2023 has a certain degree of downside for the 76ers if either Embiid or Harden misses an extended period due to injuries. Philadelphia got more favorable protection on the 2027 first-round pick, which can't be any higher than ninth and may not convey at all, though it's still possible the Sixers send a lottery pick at that point.
留住年輕天賦的代價是一對未來的首輪選秀權。如果恩比德或哈登因傷缺席一段時間，布魯克林可以選擇將今年的首輪選秀權推遲到 2023 年，這對76人隊來說會有一定程度的不利影響。2027年的首輪的保護條件對費城來說更加有利，這一簽位不會高於第九名，而且可能根本不會被轉化（如該首輪簽在2029年仍然被保護，則轉化為兩個次輪籤和200萬美元現金）。然而，在那個節點上76人送出樂透籤仍然是可以接受的。
Ultimately, I'd rather do this deal than keep Simmons and hope to trade him this summer. I'm not sure I prefer it to what else might have been available for Philadelphia to upgrade this year's team without the long-term risk of Harden's next contract.
最終，我寧願做這筆交易，也不願留下西蒙斯並企圖在今年夏天交易他。但我不確定我是不是會更喜歡費城升級今年陣容的其他可能性，以規避哈登下一份合同的長期風險。
